Monday, July 18, 2022

'World On Fire' Needs Peace

In the Catholic Peace Weekly, diagnosis of the times column, a Catholic University professor is reminded of the popular British TV drama 'World On Fire' which aired several years ago, seeing the present  world situation.  

It was a war drama set in England and Poland during World War I. As the first season ended, the second season was announced, but production and airing were delayed, and in the meantime, as the title of the drama, the world began to burn.

The war in Ukraine, which began with the Russian invasion in late February, has been going on for five months and shows no sign of ending soon. A few days ago, Russian President Putin emphasized the will to continue the war, saying that the war is only the beginning. Ukraine's will to resist the war has not been broken, and the West continues to provide arms support to Ukraine. The Ukrainian War seems to have entered the stage of attrition. It has become a battle of who can last longer.

Ukraine urges the West to provide more weapons quickly, but the West is limiting the weapons it provides because of fears of an escalation with Russia. Because of the fear of nuclear war raised by Russia. A bigger problem is that public opinion in major Western countries is slowly losing interest in the war in Ukraine. In the aftermath of the war, inflation and recession are deepening.

It is difficult for political leaders to oppose public opinion. As resolving economic problems in one's own country becomes a priority, helping other countries is likely to be pushed back slowly. Immediately after the military coup in Myanmar in February of last year, the world was outraged by the violent suppression of protesters by the military. But the anger soon cooled, and support for Myanmar's insurgents declined. With the final withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan in August of last year, it became under the control of the Taliban. The international community's attention was drawn to the plight of the people of Afghanistan, but this did not last long either. There was news that a powerful earthquake in the country at the end of June had killed a lot of people, but few are paying attention.

In retrospect, about 30 years after the end of the Cold War with the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 all was relatively peaceful. Post-Cold War peace depended on three pillars. First, the international leadership of the United States, which remained the only superpower, was important. The second was the progress of economic interdependence following globalization. Finally, the global spread of democracy also contributed to post-Cold War peace.
However, the three pillars are all shaking to some degree. Although the US is still strong, it has been weakening since the 2008 Wall Street financial crisis. The soil of isolationism has also strengthened. As President Biden struggles to restore traditional American leadership, his approval rating is hitting an all-time low.

Economic interdependence between countries is gradually starting to be recognized as a geopolitical risk factor rather than a factor conducive to improving economic efficiency. Countries are now starting to segregate supply chains in key industries. Democracy is also declining rather than spreading. Even in major democracies, political polarization is so intense that politicians based on rational discussion and compromise lose their place. The rise of authoritarian forces such as Russia and China is also a threat.

In times of crisis, the mind shrinks. The age of individual self-help begins. However, as soon as everyone becomes concerned with their own problems the world's crisis intensifies. Paradoxically, in times of crisis, we must think not only about ourselves but also about the safety and interests of the world community. If you can't expect a superhero role from any country, joint cooperation is the only answer. And for this, it is first necessary for all of us to feel and recover the brotherhood of mankind. This may be the biggest peace mission we have now.
 
 
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